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Local business journalists see improving economy, survey says

Tuesday, February 14th, 2012

National Center for Business JournalismFor the last month or so we have been reporting multiple signs of an improving economy that bolster our feeling it’s about to accelerate, and we’re not alone. U.S. business journalists – who report daily on the economy in their communities – say they expect their local economic conditions, including the number of jobs available, to improve in the next six months, according to a new survey commissioned by the Donald W. Reynolds National Center for Business Journalism.

The Reynolds Center survey is an effort to see if business journalists, who track local economic developments, might be prescient about the direction of the U.S. economy, said Executive Director Linda Austin.

“Business journalists expressed optimism in the last survey, conducted in July, about what would happen in their local economies, and several national economic indicators have recently shown improvement,” she said. “In the January survey, they are even more bullish.”

Findings of the most recent phone survey, conducted Jan. 18-24, of 300 randomly selected business journalists, include:

  • Almost half say they think general business conditions in their area will be better in six months. That was up from about a third who said that last July.
  • About eight out of 10 say local jobs are in short supply. But about four out of 10 expect more jobs to be available locally in six months.
  • Four out of 10 say their local housing market will improve in the next six months.

The firm that conducted the survey also asks the general public about the economy. Its president, Jim Haynes, says business journalists’ greater optimism than the general public may reflect their closer reading of economic data.

Dow Jones indicator sees modest economic upbeat

Wednesday, June 30th, 2010

ESI chartNEW YORK – For the third consecutive month, the Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) rose modestly signaling an improving U.S. economy. For June, the ESI rose above 40 for the first time since 2008, hitting 40.3. The ESI is up slightly from 39.4 in May.

The ESI is determined by in-depth analysis of national news coverage across 15 daily newspapers.

Despite a drop in the U.S. National Unemployment Rate, coverage of the job market remained negative as articles focused on layoffs and workers struggling to find work.

Some of the more positive news topics throughout June, such as consumers benefiting from falling prices and improved economic activity, showed mixed results.  The lower prices which spurred consumers to buy also pinched corporate profits.

Not out of the woods yet

“The ESI’s modest and steady rise over the last couple of months is a positive sign, but the U.S. is not out of the woods yet,” Dow Jones Newswires “Money Talks” Columnist Alen Mattich said. “Anxiety about the U.S.’s employment conditions and questions around Europe’s stability are key concerns that are unlikely to subside soon.”

The Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator aims to predict the health of the U.S. economy by analyzing the coverage of 15 major daily newspapers in the U.S.  Using a proprietary algorithm and derived data technology, the ESI examines every article in each of the newspapers for positive and negative sentiment about the economy.

The indicator is calculated through Dow Jones Insight, a media tracking and analysis tool. The technology used for the ESI also powers Dow Jones Lexicon, a proprietary dictionary that allows traders and analysts to determine sentiment, frequency and other relevant complex patterns within news to develop predictive trading strategies.

The ESI’s back-testing to 1990 shows that the ESI clearly highlighted the risk that the U.S. economy was sliding into recession in 2001 and 2008 and suggests the indicator can help predict economic turning points as much as seven months in advance of other indicators. More information about the Economic Sentiment Indicator and its development is available at www.dowjones.com/esi.